Canada’s Start-Up Visa Reaches a Turning Point. Here’s What the Numbers Reveal

In less than two years, Canada’s Start-Up Visa has transformed from an open-door innovation policy into a controlled, performance-based filter. Recent data shows a dramatic tightening of standards and signals a fundamental shift in what Canada now expects from immigrant entrepreneurs.

In 2023, the program saw its highest-ever intake: 5,400 permanent residence applications submitted under the SUV stream. The approval rate was high — nearly 90% — with 3,160 approvals and only 435 refusals. But operationally, the ecosystem showed signs of strain. Incubators, venture funds, and angel groups were uneven in their selection processes, and the number of letters of support issued significantly outpaced the system’s ability to evaluate the business cases behind them.

In 2024, application volume dropped sharply, to just over 3,000. While this decline aligned with the new cap of 10 support letters per designated organization, it also reflected broader changes in behavior. Designated organizations became more selective, and IRCC began increasing scrutiny during the review process.

Processing output nearly doubled: more than 6,400 PR applications were finalized in 2024, up from 3,595 the year before. However, refusals more than doubled as well — from 435 to 990 — bringing the approval rate down to 84.6%. The numbers suggest a shift in focus: beyond formal eligibility, officers began examining whether businesses had credible foundations and signs of readiness to operate.

The trend accelerated in early 2025. Between January and April, IRCC approved only 60 PR applications linked to the SUV stream and refused 205 — a 23% approval rate for that period. In addition to reviewing new files, IRCC has reportedly begun re-assessing previously issued work permits and asking for evidence of real operational presence in Canada: leases, payroll records, product updates, or customer activity. This reflects a move toward verifying early-stage execution, not just intention.

At the same time, the work permit stream has gained importance. In 2024, more than 3,000 SUV-linked work permit applications (including extensions) were submitted, and around 2,500 processed. In the first months of 2025, IRCC processed another 1,400. While PR approvals have slowed, temporary entry under the SUV continues at pace — suggesting that the work permit is increasingly seen as the practical first step for founders.

This shift aligns with how the program is now functioning in practice: relocation and operational setup often precede permanent status. Founders are expected to begin building their companies in Canada before a final PR decision is made. From a policy perspective, this sequencing reduces risk while maintaining openness to international talent.

The Start-Up Visa remains in place. But its dynamics have changed. The current data shows a system that is favoring founders who are able to demonstrate commitment and progress early — through relocation, activity on the ground, and clear signs of business execution. Letters of support and compliance with formal criteria remain essential, but they are no longer decisive on their own. The emphasis has shifted to what happens after those documents are issued.